Small Wars Journal

Russia’s Limits Meet Ukraine’s Discretion to Slow the War Down to Ukraine’s Advantage

Thu, 08/25/2022 - 1:32pm

Russia’s Limits Meet Ukraine’s Discretion to Slow the War Down to Ukraine’s Advantage

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981LinkedInFacebook),

This article is adapted from an article previously published on Brian’s news website Real Context News on August 23 titled Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

Big battles and rapid taking or losing of territory are easy to understand and interpret.  When things slow down, though, there is a lot more uncertainty and speculation, but if you take the time to understand why things are slower, it can be as revealing as the big battles and large swaths of territory changing hands.

We are now at an interesting time in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a moment where we are seeing two grand overall trends unite to heavily propel things in Ukraine’s favor.  These two overarching trends are that Ukraine is contributing prudence and Russia is contributing its deteriorating capabilities to the conflict in ways that are dictating the pacing and nature of much of the conflict at the moment, especially as most of the energy is now being directed towards the southern theater of action.

First, an introduction to the situation is in order.  I have gone into detail with many sources over both much of the why behind the way the war is unfolding and how the war is very likely going to play out as a result,  so herein will mostly be a discussion of certain previously stressed features of this conflict and how they are now progressing, but with some new points that build upon my previous work.  I strongly encourage anyone wanting to know more or where I have obtained my information to check out my last article for Small Wars Journal and these two pieces especially, but also some of my other previous work (especially two articles from April regarding Crimea’s vulnerability and why the Russian Navy would be mostly sidelined or destroyed; on both counts, recent events have proven me quite prescient).


All Eyes on Kherson