Gray Zone

Russia is counting on the United States and its allies to calculate that supporting Ukraine with additional lethal and non-lethal aid exposes them to unacceptably high risk of escalation with Russia. But the only side this risk serves to constrain is the West.

The United States is actively involved in two hybrid conflicts (ISIS in Syria and Iraq) and is supporting the Ukraine against hybrid threats from Russia. That said, America lacks a formal doctrine for dealing with such conflicts or even an agreed-on doctrinal definition of what they are.

While the concept and terminology of the Gray Zone is new, the geo-political situation it described is not, and the US military does have experience operating within them.

The biggest changes to the character of war seem to be ahead of us as the 21^st century opens what looks like Pandora’s Box.

SOCAFRICA must understand and operate in the space between war and peace in a complex, volatile, uncertain and ambiguous environment - an environment of adversarial competition.

Why a label and its use obfuscates the most critical variable of social and cultural reality necessary for mission success.

The Gray Zone is becoming less opaque, less undefined because emerging analytical frameworks are finding their footing in the Department of Defense.

The United States has failed to appropriately respond to the gray zone so far, so what should the new administration strive for?