Baltic States

Russian decision-makers might be tempted to gamble that NATO would not react to a land grab or—perhaps more likely—an operation designed to come in under a threshold that would trigger a collective security response. Considering this, Baltic decision-makers should explore a wide array of options to help enhance deterrence; but they must do so with deliberation.

Given a Russian invasion scenario, the Baltic States would have no choice to preserve their independence but to fight a guerrilla war against occupying forces.

As small countries with little strategic depth and limited human and economic resources, the Baltic states are increasingly adopting a “total defense” approach to national security.